Decentraland against its 20-week moving average: risk level

MANA Risk Matrix

$0.0724 | Risk: 0.31

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:55 UTC

📈 MANA Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.0397
Level 0.05 $-0.0214
Level 0.10 $-0.003080
Level 0.15 $0.0152
Level 0.20 $0.0336
Level 0.25 $0.0519
Level 0.30 $0.0702
Level 0.35 $0.0885
Level 0.40 $0.1069
Level 0.45 $0.1252
Level 0.50 $0.1435
Level 0.55 $0.1619
Level 0.60 $0.1802
Level 0.65 $0.1985
Level 0.70 $0.2168
Level 0.75 $0.2352
Level 0.80 $0.2535
Level 0.85 $0.2718
Level 0.90 $0.2901
Level 0.95 $0.3085
Level 1.00 $0.3268

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes MANA's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what MANA's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.