Hedera against its 20-week moving average: risk level

HBAR Risk Matrix

$0.0679 | Risk: 0.24

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 HBAR Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $0.0126
Level 0.05 $0.0243
Level 0.10 $0.0360
Level 0.15 $0.0477
Level 0.20 $0.0594
Level 0.25 $0.0711
Level 0.30 $0.0827
Level 0.35 $0.0944
Level 0.40 $0.1061
Level 0.45 $0.1178
Level 0.50 $0.1295
Level 0.55 $0.1412
Level 0.60 $0.1529
Level 0.65 $0.1646
Level 0.70 $0.1763
Level 0.75 $0.1880
Level 0.80 $0.1997
Level 0.85 $0.2114
Level 0.90 $0.2231
Level 0.95 $0.2348
Level 1.00 $0.2465

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes HBAR's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what HBAR's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.