Ethena against its 20-week moving average: risk level

ENA Risk Matrix

$0.1538 | Risk: 0.37

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:55 UTC

📈 ENA Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.008898
Level 0.05 $0.0129
Level 0.10 $0.0347
Level 0.15 $0.0565
Level 0.20 $0.0783
Level 0.25 $0.1001
Level 0.30 $0.1219
Level 0.35 $0.1437
Level 0.40 $0.1655
Level 0.45 $0.1873
Level 0.50 $0.2091
Level 0.55 $0.2309
Level 0.60 $0.2527
Level 0.65 $0.2745
Level 0.70 $0.2963
Level 0.75 $0.3182
Level 0.80 $0.3400
Level 0.85 $0.3618
Level 0.90 $0.3836
Level 0.95 $0.4054
Level 1.00 $0.4272

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes ENA's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what ENA's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.