Bitcoin Cash against its 20-week moving average: risk level

BCH Risk Matrix

$241.3800 | Risk: 0.47

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:53 UTC

📈 BCH Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $12.7571
Level 0.05 $37.1306
Level 0.10 $61.5042
Level 0.15 $85.8777
Level 0.20 $110.2513
Level 0.25 $134.6248
Level 0.30 $158.9983
Level 0.35 $183.3719
Level 0.40 $207.7454
Level 0.45 $232.1190
Level 0.50 $256.4925
Level 0.55 $280.8661
Level 0.60 $305.2396
Level 0.65 $329.6132
Level 0.70 $353.9867
Level 0.75 $378.3603
Level 0.80 $402.7338
Level 0.85 $427.1074
Level 0.90 $451.4809
Level 0.95 $475.8544
Level 1.00 $500.2280

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes BCH's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what BCH's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.