Consumer Discretionary Sector ETF price forecast: what the model says

XLY SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$121.10

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$125.42

Bear 68%

$109.84

Bull 68%

$141.81

68% Range Width

25.5%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $113.49 $115.94 $118.31 $120.77 $123.25 $125.67 $128.22
2026-11-29 $109.48 $113.25 $116.90 $120.71 $124.58 $128.37 $132.38
2026-12-06 $106.63 $111.39 $116.03 $120.88 $125.82 $130.68 $135.84
2026-12-13 $104.93 $110.51 $115.97 $121.69 $127.53 $133.30 $139.44
2026-12-20 $103.42 $109.70 $115.87 $122.35 $128.98 $135.55 $142.55
2026-12-27 $101.82 $108.73 $115.52 $122.68 $130.02 $137.30 $145.07
2027-01-03 $100.97 $108.46 $115.83 $123.62 $131.62 $139.58 $148.08
2027-01-10 $99.22 $107.21 $115.09 $123.45 $132.04 $140.60 $149.76
2027-01-17 $97.55 $106.00 $114.36 $123.24 $132.38 $141.51 $151.29
2027-01-24 $96.42 $105.32 $114.14 $123.53 $133.20 $142.88 $153.26
2027-01-31 $95.62 $104.96 $114.23 $124.10 $134.29 $144.50 $155.47
2027-02-07 $94.33 $104.06 $113.73 $124.05 $134.72 $145.42 $156.94
2027-02-14 $92.34 $102.43 $112.48 $123.22 $134.35 $145.52 $157.56
2027-02-21 $91.01 $101.46 $111.90 $123.07 $134.66 $146.31 $158.89
2027-02-28 $89.99 $100.81 $111.62 $123.22 $135.27 $147.40 $160.50
2027-03-07 $89.61 $100.79 $112.00 $124.03 $136.55 $149.16 $162.80
2027-03-14 $89.13 $100.67 $112.25 $124.70 $137.66 $150.74 $164.90
2027-03-21 $88.39 $100.26 $112.19 $125.03 $138.42 $151.94 $166.59
2027-03-28 $88.22 $100.43 $112.73 $125.98 $139.81 $153.79 $168.94
2027-04-04 $87.10 $99.60 $112.20 $125.80 $140.02 $154.40 $170.00
2027-04-11 $85.98 $98.76 $111.65 $125.59 $140.18 $154.95 $170.99
2027-04-18 $85.32 $98.38 $111.59 $125.88 $140.85 $156.02 $172.52
2027-04-25 $84.93 $98.28 $111.81 $126.45 $141.81 $157.39 $174.34
2027-05-02 $84.02 $97.64 $111.44 $126.40 $142.12 $158.07 $175.44
2027-05-09 $82.43 $96.26 $110.31 $125.57 $141.61 $157.91 $175.68
2027-05-16 $81.44 $95.52 $109.84 $125.42 $141.81 $158.49 $176.68

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.