Industrial Sector ETF price forecast: what the model says

XLI SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$168.79

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$177.85

Bear 68%

$157.46

Bull 68%

$200.85

68% Range Width

24.4%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $158.21 $161.48 $164.68 $168.03 $171.46 $174.85 $178.46
2026-11-29 $153.55 $158.37 $163.13 $168.18 $173.38 $178.59 $184.19
2026-12-06 $150.87 $156.77 $162.65 $168.92 $175.44 $182.01 $189.12
2026-12-13 $149.04 $155.85 $162.67 $169.99 $177.64 $185.40 $193.86
2026-12-20 $148.18 $155.81 $163.48 $171.77 $180.47 $189.34 $199.06
2026-12-27 $146.66 $154.97 $163.37 $172.49 $182.12 $191.98 $202.83
2027-01-03 $144.95 $153.86 $162.91 $172.77 $183.24 $193.99 $205.89
2027-01-10 $143.20 $152.64 $162.27 $172.82 $184.05 $195.64 $208.51
2027-01-17 $141.11 $151.02 $161.15 $172.30 $184.21 $196.55 $210.31
2027-01-24 $140.39 $150.81 $161.51 $173.31 $185.98 $199.15 $213.88
2027-01-31 $139.09 $149.95 $161.13 $173.52 $186.85 $200.76 $216.38
2027-02-07 $137.92 $149.19 $160.84 $173.79 $187.76 $202.40 $218.88
2027-02-14 $135.55 $147.20 $159.29 $172.76 $187.37 $202.72 $220.07
2027-02-21 $134.20 $146.28 $158.86 $172.95 $188.27 $204.43 $222.76
2027-02-28 $133.37 $145.90 $159.00 $173.71 $189.77 $206.76 $226.12
2027-03-07 $132.85 $145.84 $159.46 $174.81 $191.62 $209.47 $229.87
2027-03-14 $132.93 $146.41 $160.60 $176.63 $194.25 $213.03 $234.54
2027-03-21 $132.23 $146.11 $160.76 $177.38 $195.69 $215.27 $237.77
2027-03-28 $131.23 $145.46 $160.53 $177.67 $196.62 $216.93 $240.36
2027-04-04 $130.10 $144.65 $160.10 $177.72 $197.26 $218.27 $242.57
2027-04-11 $128.58 $143.38 $159.15 $177.18 $197.24 $218.86 $243.94
2027-04-18 $128.25 $143.43 $159.63 $178.22 $198.96 $221.38 $247.44
2027-04-25 $127.35 $142.82 $159.38 $178.44 $199.75 $222.85 $249.78
2027-05-02 $126.52 $142.28 $159.20 $178.71 $200.59 $224.37 $252.17
2027-05-09 $124.62 $140.58 $157.77 $177.66 $200.03 $224.41 $253.00
2027-05-16 $123.61 $139.88 $157.46 $177.85 $200.85 $226.01 $255.59

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.