Vistra Corp price forecast: what the model says

VST SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$133.50

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$159.29

Bear 68%

$98.59

Bull 68%

$294.30

68% Range Width

122.9%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $101.87 $110.67 $120.18 $131.28 $143.92 $157.96 $174.84
2026-11-29 $93.60 $104.97 $117.84 $133.64 $152.72 $175.28 $204.38
2026-12-06 $87.07 $99.81 $114.71 $133.70 $157.63 $187.31 $227.80
2026-12-13 $84.58 $98.90 $116.18 $138.97 $168.89 $207.80 $264.03
2026-12-20 $80.59 $95.68 $114.33 $139.61 $173.92 $220.32 $290.72
2026-12-27 $77.28 $93.00 $112.83 $140.38 $178.92 $233.00 $319.03
2027-01-03 $75.11 $91.56 $112.74 $142.88 $186.32 $249.62 $355.37
2027-01-10 $72.04 $88.72 $110.54 $142.20 $188.99 $259.33 $381.93
2027-01-17 $69.74 $86.74 $109.33 $142.76 $193.39 $271.96 $415.14
2027-01-24 $67.56 $84.78 $108.00 $142.97 $197.18 $283.90 $448.88
2027-01-31 $65.52 $82.91 $106.64 $143.01 $200.62 $295.51 $483.86
2027-02-07 $64.44 $82.29 $107.02 $145.62 $208.31 $315.10 $538.10
2027-02-14 $61.56 $79.16 $103.83 $142.87 $207.54 $320.72 $567.02
2027-02-21 $60.48 $78.52 $104.19 $145.67 $216.27 $344.72 $641.95
2027-02-28 $58.74 $76.84 $102.90 $145.68 $220.14 $359.98 $700.79
2027-03-07 $58.66 $77.54 $105.21 $151.69 $235.24 $399.74 $834.24
2027-03-14 $57.28 $76.26 $104.40 $152.40 $240.66 $420.37 $924.06
2027-03-21 $56.03 $75.11 $103.72 $153.28 $246.45 $442.70 $1,027.94
2027-03-28 $55.30 $74.70 $104.17 $156.11 $256.30 $475.94 $1,182.54
2027-04-04 $53.84 $73.11 $102.65 $155.35 $258.85 $492.39 $1,287.57
2027-04-11 $52.75 $72.06 $101.94 $155.98 $264.31 $516.97 $1,437.37
2027-04-18 $51.65 $70.94 $101.05 $156.22 $268.96 $540.38 $1,597.87
2027-04-25 $50.57 $69.81 $100.10 $156.26 $273.19 $563.50 $1,774.32
2027-05-02 $50.09 $69.61 $100.69 $159.23 $284.17 $607.76 $2,095.55
2027-05-09 $48.37 $67.45 $98.02 $156.11 $281.76 $614.95 $2,236.30
2027-05-16 $47.84 $67.20 $98.59 $159.29 $294.30 $670.48 $2,745.81

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.