68% Bear Case

$0.17

23-Week Base Target

$0.39

68% Bull Case

$0.84

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of TRX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.23 0.26 0.29 0.33 0.37 0.42 0.47
2026-06-21 0.19 0.23 0.28 0.34 0.40 0.48 0.58
2026-06-28 0.16 0.21 0.27 0.34 0.43 0.54 0.68
2026-07-05 0.14 0.19 0.26 0.34 0.46 0.60 0.79
2026-07-12 0.12 0.18 0.25 0.35 0.49 0.66 0.91
2026-07-19 0.11 0.16 0.24 0.35 0.50 0.71 1.00
2026-07-26 0.10 0.15 0.23 0.35 0.52 0.76 1.10
2026-08-02 0.09 0.14 0.22 0.35 0.54 0.80 1.20
2026-08-09 0.08 0.13 0.22 0.36 0.56 0.86 1.33
2026-08-16 0.07 0.13 0.21 0.36 0.58 0.91 1.43
2026-08-23 0.06 0.12 0.21 0.35 0.59 0.95 1.53
2026-08-30 0.06 0.11 0.20 0.36 0.61 1.00 1.64
2026-09-06 0.06 0.11 0.20 0.36 0.63 1.07 1.79
2026-09-13 0.05 0.11 0.20 0.37 0.66 1.14 1.95
2026-09-20 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.37 0.69 1.20 2.09
2026-09-27 0.05 0.10 0.19 0.38 0.71 1.27 2.25
2026-10-04 0.04 0.10 0.19 0.39 0.74 1.35 2.43
2026-10-11 0.04 0.09 0.19 0.39 0.76 1.40 2.55
2026-10-18 0.04 0.09 0.18 0.39 0.77 1.45 2.69
2026-10-25 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.39 0.78 1.50 2.82
2026-11-01 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.39 0.81 1.58 3.02
2026-11-08 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.39 0.83 1.63 3.16
2026-11-15 0.03 0.07 0.17 0.39 0.84 1.68 3.31