Semiconductor ETF price forecast: what the model says

SOXX SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$146.29

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$172.72

Bear 68%

$123.98

Bull 68%

$253.15

68% Range Width

74.8%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $122.54 $129.30 $136.28 $144.03 $152.42 $161.22 $171.19
2026-11-29 $114.67 $124.12 $134.22 $145.87 $158.98 $173.35 $190.37
2026-12-06 $109.58 $120.79 $133.10 $147.68 $164.61 $183.76 $207.25
2026-12-13 $106.75 $119.49 $133.77 $151.11 $171.77 $195.81 $226.25
2026-12-20 $104.61 $118.65 $134.71 $154.62 $178.90 $207.91 $245.72
2026-12-27 $102.33 $117.43 $134.99 $157.16 $184.79 $218.58 $263.83
2027-01-03 $100.38 $116.41 $135.35 $159.68 $190.60 $229.27 $282.44
2027-01-10 $97.16 $113.67 $133.42 $159.16 $192.43 $234.84 $294.49
2027-01-17 $94.08 $110.94 $131.35 $158.30 $193.67 $239.57 $305.50
2027-01-24 $92.13 $109.51 $130.78 $159.26 $197.24 $247.44 $321.17
2027-01-31 $89.98 $107.72 $129.67 $159.41 $199.66 $253.76 $334.91
2027-02-07 $87.97 $106.03 $128.59 $159.52 $201.95 $259.94 $348.71
2027-02-14 $84.60 $102.54 $125.14 $156.44 $199.89 $260.12 $353.97
2027-02-21 $83.53 $101.99 $125.51 $158.50 $205.02 $270.74 $375.62
2027-02-28 $82.54 $101.49 $125.89 $160.54 $210.16 $281.57 $398.29
2027-03-07 $82.30 $101.96 $127.55 $164.40 $218.04 $296.83 $429.06
2027-03-14 $82.11 $102.46 $129.26 $168.35 $226.20 $312.92 $462.44
2027-03-21 $81.54 $102.43 $130.20 $171.21 $232.84 $326.99 $493.54
2027-03-28 $80.99 $102.39 $131.12 $174.05 $239.54 $341.51 $526.59
2027-04-04 $79.32 $100.76 $129.76 $173.47 $240.90 $347.44 $544.70
2027-04-11 $77.61 $99.03 $128.18 $172.49 $241.59 $352.25 $561.06
2027-04-18 $76.64 $98.29 $128.00 $173.58 $245.56 $362.72 $588.86
2027-04-25 $75.43 $97.18 $127.23 $173.75 $248.03 $370.73 $612.59
2027-05-02 $74.26 $96.09 $126.46 $173.87 $250.41 $378.68 $636.82
2027-05-09 $71.97 $93.41 $123.36 $170.40 $246.92 $376.44 $640.92
2027-05-16 $71.46 $93.26 $123.98 $172.72 $253.15 $391.89 $683.09

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.