68% Bear Case

$0.04

23-Week Base Target

$0.40

68% Bull Case

$1.74

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of RUNE prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.15 0.21 0.27 0.35 0.45 0.56 0.70
2026-06-21 0.08 0.14 0.23 0.35 0.51 0.73 1.01
2026-06-28 0.04 0.10 0.19 0.34 0.56 0.87 1.32
2026-07-05 0.02 0.07 0.16 0.33 0.61 1.02 1.65
2026-07-12 0.01 0.05 0.14 0.33 0.67 1.20 2.03
2026-07-19 0.00 0.03 0.12 0.31 0.70 1.32 2.35
2026-07-26 0.00 0.03 0.11 0.33 0.77 1.53 2.81
2026-08-02 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.33 0.83 1.70 3.22
2026-08-09 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.35 0.92 1.96 3.77
2026-08-16 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.37 1.01 2.19 4.30
2026-08-23 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.37 1.06 2.37 4.76
2026-08-30 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.36 1.09 2.53 5.18
2026-09-06 NaN 0.01 0.07 0.37 1.16 2.75 5.73
2026-09-13 NaN 0.00 0.07 0.37 1.21 2.94 6.24
2026-09-20 NaN 0.00 0.06 0.36 1.24 3.09 6.68
2026-09-27 NaN 0.00 0.05 0.35 1.26 3.24 7.12
2026-10-04 NaN 0.00 0.05 0.35 1.32 3.45 7.69
2026-10-11 NaN 0.00 0.04 0.34 1.33 3.56 8.08
2026-10-18 NaN 0.00 0.04 0.35 1.42 3.85 8.80
2026-10-25 NaN 0.00 0.04 0.35 1.47 4.06 9.39
2026-11-01 NaN 0.00 0.04 0.38 1.59 4.42 10.27
2026-11-08 NaN 0.00 0.04 0.40 1.69 4.74 11.06
2026-11-15 NaN 0.00 0.04 0.40 1.74 4.96 11.70