Invesco QQQ Trust price forecast: what the model says

QQQ SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$677.13

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$733.99

Bear 68%

$617.32

Bull 68%

$877.05

68% Range Width

35.4%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $621.47 $638.54 $655.42 $673.34 $691.83 $710.35 $730.30
2026-11-29 $595.40 $620.80 $646.33 $673.91 $702.87 $732.37 $764.71
2026-12-06 $578.82 $610.33 $642.40 $677.50 $714.85 $753.41 $796.26
2026-12-13 $568.59 $605.14 $642.75 $684.35 $729.11 $775.85 $828.39
2026-12-20 $561.72 $602.69 $645.23 $692.74 $744.35 $798.79 $860.60
2026-12-27 $553.41 $598.06 $644.79 $697.43 $755.12 $816.49 $886.83
2027-01-03 $548.17 $596.30 $647.09 $704.72 $768.40 $836.70 $915.63
2027-01-10 $537.65 $588.35 $642.20 $703.74 $772.24 $846.26 $932.46
2027-01-17 $527.95 $580.94 $637.58 $702.74 $775.76 $855.21 $948.40
2027-01-24 $521.39 $576.75 $636.29 $705.20 $782.94 $868.09 $968.66
2027-01-31 $514.84 $572.34 $634.53 $706.95 $789.14 $879.74 $987.46
2027-02-07 $507.90 $567.28 $631.86 $707.48 $793.81 $889.55 $1,004.09
2027-02-14 $497.33 $558.10 $624.53 $702.77 $792.61 $892.84 $1,013.51
2027-02-21 $490.61 $553.13 $621.85 $703.23 $797.23 $902.74 $1,030.57
2027-02-28 $486.37 $550.85 $622.12 $706.97 $805.55 $916.85 $1,052.55
2027-03-07 $484.60 $551.32 $625.43 $714.16 $817.83 $935.57 $1,080.00
2027-03-14 $484.02 $553.08 $630.18 $722.97 $832.00 $956.54 $1,110.25
2027-03-21 $481.16 $552.08 $631.66 $727.90 $841.59 $972.15 $1,134.23
2027-03-28 $480.13 $553.16 $635.49 $735.56 $854.39 $991.61 $1,162.92
2027-04-04 $473.99 $548.12 $632.06 $734.53 $856.81 $998.71 $1,176.80
2027-04-11 $468.06 $543.22 $628.68 $733.48 $859.11 $1,005.60 $1,190.40
2027-04-18 $464.49 $541.03 $628.43 $736.07 $865.72 $1,017.64 $1,210.28
2027-04-25 $460.62 $538.41 $627.59 $737.90 $871.37 $1,028.51 $1,228.77
2027-05-02 $456.18 $535.02 $625.76 $738.47 $875.44 $1,037.43 $1,244.89
2027-05-09 $448.43 $527.69 $619.28 $733.51 $872.94 $1,038.59 $1,251.78
2027-05-16 $443.89 $524.17 $617.32 $733.99 $877.05 $1,047.83 $1,268.75

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.