PayPal price forecast: what the model says

PYPL SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$60.15

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$58.95

Bear 68%

$45.56

Bull 68%

$82.42

68% Range Width

62.5%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $53.14 $55.11 $57.14 $59.37 $61.78 $64.30 $67.14
2026-11-29 $48.72 $51.34 $54.11 $57.28 $60.82 $64.67 $69.21
2026-12-06 $47.02 $50.21 $53.67 $57.74 $62.43 $67.72 $74.23
2026-12-13 $45.41 $48.99 $52.95 $57.72 $63.37 $69.95 $78.34
2026-12-20 $44.33 $48.26 $52.69 $58.13 $64.74 $72.67 $83.15
2026-12-27 $43.83 $48.13 $53.06 $59.25 $66.96 $76.48 $89.57
2027-01-03 $43.99 $48.75 $54.31 $61.44 $70.57 $82.26 $99.08
2027-01-10 $42.56 $47.39 $53.09 $60.50 $70.13 $82.69 $101.26
2027-01-17 $41.17 $46.03 $51.81 $59.39 $69.37 $82.63 $102.67
2027-01-24 $40.36 $45.33 $51.30 $59.23 $69.84 $84.22 $106.60
2027-01-31 $40.39 $45.66 $52.08 $60.74 $72.60 $89.16 $116.12
2027-02-07 $39.99 $45.43 $52.13 $61.29 $74.06 $92.32 $123.17
2027-02-14 $38.74 $44.19 $50.97 $60.33 $73.59 $92.97 $126.82
2027-02-21 $37.02 $42.32 $48.93 $58.12 $71.23 $90.61 $125.05
2027-02-28 $36.51 $41.96 $48.85 $58.57 $72.73 $94.32 $134.71
2027-03-07 $35.84 $41.38 $48.44 $58.54 $73.52 $96.98 $142.89
2027-03-14 $35.39 $41.07 $48.37 $58.96 $75.00 $100.89 $154.42
2027-03-21 $35.24 $41.13 $48.80 $60.11 $77.67 $107.12 $172.59
2027-03-28 $35.48 $41.71 $49.94 $62.36 $82.27 $117.46 $204.50
2027-04-04 $34.62 $40.78 $48.97 $61.39 $81.50 $117.64 $210.22
2027-04-11 $33.75 $39.81 $47.91 $60.25 $80.38 $117.02 $213.53
2027-04-18 $33.24 $39.33 $47.51 $60.09 $80.91 $119.72 $227.79
2027-04-25 $33.30 $39.61 $48.20 $61.64 $84.50 $129.22 $269.36
2027-05-02 $33.05 $39.47 $48.27 $62.20 $86.38 $135.41 $304.53
2027-05-09 $32.23 $38.57 $47.30 $61.22 $85.65 $136.20 $321.15
2027-05-16 $31.05 $37.15 $45.56 $58.95 $82.42 $130.94 $307.72

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.