Palantir price forecast: what the model says

PLTR SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$169.52

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$238.03

Bear 68%

$119.41

Bull 68%

$543.18

68% Range Width

178.0%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $117.78 $133.07 $150.09 $170.53 $194.53 $221.96 $255.88
2026-11-29 $100.98 $119.86 $142.21 $170.87 $207.04 $251.66 $311.65
2026-12-06 $91.78 $112.66 $138.46 $173.13 $219.20 $279.34 $365.50
2026-12-13 $85.22 $107.75 $136.67 $177.19 $233.66 $311.39 $429.76
2026-12-20 $79.47 $102.88 $133.84 $178.75 $243.87 $337.58 $487.97
2026-12-27 $73.85 $97.63 $129.96 $178.33 $251.06 $360.18 $544.27
2027-01-03 $69.72 $93.91 $127.59 $179.42 $259.98 $385.60 $607.75
2027-01-10 $64.72 $88.57 $122.49 $175.96 $261.51 $399.56 $654.29
2027-01-17 $62.11 $86.40 $121.68 $178.70 $272.77 $430.19 $734.26
2027-01-24 $59.97 $84.75 $121.50 $182.40 $285.94 $465.69 $829.58
2027-01-31 $59.60 $85.67 $125.22 $192.55 $310.92 $524.98 $982.19
2027-02-07 $58.54 $85.44 $127.09 $199.77 $331.55 $579.23 $1,135.99
2027-02-14 $55.90 $82.65 $124.78 $199.84 $339.60 $611.18 $1,249.91
2027-02-21 $53.74 $80.47 $123.29 $201.22 $350.24 $649.87 $1,388.53
2027-02-28 $51.90 $78.65 $122.24 $203.18 $362.07 $692.53 $1,546.70
2027-03-07 $50.82 $78.03 $123.15 $208.80 $381.84 $755.45 $1,774.19
2027-03-14 $49.11 $76.24 $121.88 $210.16 $392.92 $800.51 $1,965.41
2027-03-21 $47.30 $74.16 $119.97 $210.11 $401.00 $839.83 $2,151.57
2027-03-28 $45.78 $72.49 $118.65 $211.06 $411.28 $886.00 $2,372.48
2027-04-04 $43.65 $69.64 $115.04 $207.13 $410.30 $903.94 $2,508.56
2027-04-11 $42.65 $68.73 $114.90 $210.24 $425.63 $966.47 $2,816.38
2027-04-18 $41.92 $68.25 $115.53 $214.97 $445.36 $1,044.47 $3,210.33
2027-04-25 $42.17 $69.53 $119.56 $227.24 $484.82 $1,185.62 $3,911.10
2027-05-02 $41.96 $69.97 $121.99 $236.27 $517.61 $1,315.23 $4,636.45
2027-05-09 $40.62 $68.29 $120.28 $236.23 $527.80 $1,380.43 $5,121.77
2027-05-16 $39.56 $67.08 $119.41 $238.03 $543.18 $1,465.89 $5,755.80

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.