Oracle price forecast: what the model says

ORCL SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$119.22

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$119.40

Bear 68%

$88.90

Bull 68%

$163.49

68% Range Width

62.5%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $103.52 $108.45 $113.44 $118.87 $124.62 $130.53 $137.06
2026-11-29 $96.48 $103.46 $110.72 $118.86 $127.72 $137.11 $147.81
2026-12-06 $91.31 $99.70 $108.63 $118.86 $130.27 $142.65 $157.11
2026-12-13 $86.79 $96.19 $106.38 $118.26 $131.78 $146.74 $164.60
2026-12-20 $83.10 $93.28 $104.49 $117.78 $133.17 $150.50 $171.57
2026-12-27 $80.72 $91.68 $103.90 $118.60 $135.90 $155.69 $180.19
2027-01-03 $77.96 $89.45 $102.43 $118.25 $137.13 $159.04 $186.60
2027-01-10 $73.89 $85.52 $98.80 $115.17 $134.94 $158.18 $187.81
2027-01-17 $72.06 $84.13 $98.07 $115.45 $136.69 $162.00 $194.71
2027-01-24 $71.22 $83.87 $98.63 $117.24 $140.27 $168.06 $204.49
2027-01-31 $69.94 $83.02 $98.42 $118.04 $142.60 $172.59 $212.43
2027-02-07 $68.65 $82.10 $98.08 $118.64 $144.64 $176.77 $219.98
2027-02-14 $67.08 $80.86 $97.39 $118.89 $146.39 $180.78 $227.67
2027-02-21 $65.57 $79.64 $96.69 $119.07 $148.03 $184.69 $235.33
2027-02-28 $64.11 $78.43 $95.93 $119.15 $149.51 $188.38 $242.78
2027-03-07 $62.43 $76.89 $94.71 $118.57 $150.07 $190.85 $248.63
2027-03-14 $60.90 $75.49 $93.62 $118.10 $150.74 $193.44 $254.65
2027-03-21 $60.02 $74.90 $93.54 $118.92 $153.12 $198.35 $263.99
2027-03-28 $58.69 $73.68 $92.60 $118.57 $153.88 $201.06 $270.30
2027-04-04 $56.29 $71.00 $89.67 $115.48 $150.83 $198.43 $268.94
2027-04-11 $55.37 $70.25 $89.27 $115.76 $152.38 $202.16 $276.74
2027-04-18 $55.11 $70.35 $89.98 $117.56 $156.05 $208.93 $289.12
2027-04-25 $54.47 $69.92 $89.97 $118.36 $158.33 $213.79 $298.82
2027-05-02 $53.78 $69.41 $89.83 $118.96 $160.32 $218.26 $308.07
2027-05-09 $52.88 $68.64 $89.38 $119.21 $161.94 $222.43 $317.31
2027-05-16 $51.98 $67.86 $88.90 $119.40 $163.49 $226.53 $326.59

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.