68% Bear Case

$0.02

23-Week Base Target

$0.14

68% Bull Case

$1.97

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.15 0.19 2.500000e-01
2026-06-21 0.05 0.07 0.11 0.17 0.26 0.42 7.200000e-01
2026-06-28 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.19 0.36 0.70 1.570000e+00
2026-07-05 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.20 0.43 1.03 2.970000e+00
2026-07-12 0.02 0.05 0.09 0.19 0.47 1.30 4.780000e+00
2026-07-19 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.18 0.48 1.52 7.010000e+00
2026-07-26 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.18 0.53 1.96 1.170000e+01
2026-08-02 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.19 0.63 2.77 2.268000e+01
2026-08-09 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.18 0.64 3.17 3.333000e+01
2026-08-16 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.16 0.61 3.37 4.377000e+01
2026-08-23 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.38 1.99 2.288000e+01
2026-08-30 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.21 1.04 8.81 3.410700e+02
2026-09-06 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.26 1.58 19.71 2.705950e+03
2026-09-13 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.29 2.07 37.25 2.699185e+04
2026-09-20 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.30 2.45 62.05 4.573024e+05
2026-09-27 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.30 2.79 98.52 4.848182e+07
2026-10-04 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.28 2.87 132.24 3.208579e+13
2026-10-11 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.25 2.82 162.58 NaN
2026-10-18 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.25 3.15 262.01 NaN
2026-10-25 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.27 3.93 560.66 NaN
2026-11-01 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.25 3.96 754.65 NaN
2026-11-08 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.22 3.72 850.69 NaN
2026-11-15 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.14 1.97 230.81 NaN