Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.025447 0.030222 0.035811 0.042883 0.051652 0.062247 0.076139
2026-06-21 0.023778 0.031304 0.041272 0.055674 0.076351 0.105587 0.151209
2026-06-28 0.020882 0.029892 0.043106 0.064508 0.099523 0.156840 0.262920
2026-07-05 0.017930 0.027488 0.042746 0.070006 0.120097 0.213968 0.418985
2026-07-12 0.014873 0.024071 0.039785 0.070217 0.131913 0.262089 0.593069
2026-07-19 0.012251 0.020711 0.035986 0.067617 0.137350 0.300653 0.777935
2026-07-26 0.010648 0.018752 0.034173 0.068243 0.149844 0.362330 1.082225
2026-08-02 0.009642 0.017663 0.033723 0.071553 0.170095 0.456720 1.597435
2026-08-09 0.008398 0.015855 0.031386 0.069861 0.177062 0.518673 2.080230
2026-08-16 0.007256 0.014043 0.028646 0.066386 0.177758 0.562122 2.554283
2026-08-23 0.005465 0.010618 0.021762 0.050757 0.137119 0.439055 2.036967
2026-08-30 0.005689 0.011516 0.024827 0.062044 0.184587 0.679355 4.008174
2026-09-06 0.005268 0.011012 0.024709 0.065289 0.210417 0.873072 6.420986
2026-09-13 0.004883 0.010534 0.024590 0.068717 0.240470 1.133889 10.709894
2026-09-20 0.004474 0.009924 0.024005 0.070603 0.266841 1.424250 17.430916
2026-09-27 0.004086 0.009293 0.023222 0.071617 0.291150 1.754807 28.184747
2026-10-04 0.003641 0.008442 0.021626 0.069194 0.297983 1.982880 40.322264
2026-10-11 0.003217 0.007575 0.019801 0.065298 0.295029 2.136463 53.755928
2026-10-18 0.002952 0.007088 0.019011 0.065170 0.313452 2.541927 86.622699
2026-10-25 0.002788 0.006846 0.018920 0.067887 0.352034 3.286766 168.897263
2026-11-01 0.002541 0.006333 0.017855 0.066073 0.360805 3.722762 262.669511
2026-11-08 0.002291 0.005777 0.016541 0.062703 0.356673 3.990138 370.429809
2026-11-15 0.001838 0.004587 0.012949 0.048020 0.263157 2.734240 197.411318