Microchip Tech price forecast: what the model says

MCHP SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$61.16

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$66.54

Bear 68%

$50.88

Bull 68%

$80.34

68% Range Width

44.3%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $48.02 $52.32 $56.27 $60.17 $63.94 $67.48 $71.07
2026-11-29 $43.29 $49.56 $55.18 $60.64 $65.84 $70.68 $75.53
2026-12-06 $40.63 $48.40 $55.23 $61.80 $67.99 $73.71 $79.43
2026-12-13 $38.16 $47.22 $55.07 $62.53 $69.52 $75.95 $82.35
2026-12-20 $36.26 $46.46 $55.15 $63.35 $71.00 $78.00 $84.95
2026-12-27 $35.35 $46.44 $55.81 $64.61 $72.78 $80.24 $87.63
2027-01-03 $33.61 $45.66 $55.71 $65.08 $73.74 $81.64 $89.44
2027-01-10 $31.65 $44.66 $55.36 $65.26 $74.38 $82.67 $90.84
2027-01-17 $29.76 $43.70 $55.00 $65.39 $74.92 $83.56 $92.07
2027-01-24 $28.35 $43.10 $54.92 $65.73 $75.62 $84.57 $93.37
2027-01-31 $25.95 $41.74 $54.14 $65.41 $75.68 $84.94 $94.04
2027-02-07 $23.43 $40.30 $53.29 $65.00 $75.63 $85.19 $94.56
2027-02-14 $19.25 $37.85 $51.63 $63.91 $74.98 $84.90 $94.61
2027-02-21 $17.75 $37.34 $51.60 $64.24 $75.60 $85.78 $95.72
2027-02-28 $17.77 $37.80 $52.35 $65.23 $76.81 $87.18 $97.30
2027-03-07 $17.10 $37.79 $52.67 $65.83 $77.63 $88.19 $98.50
2027-03-14 $16.74 $37.96 $53.13 $66.51 $78.52 $89.25 $99.72
2027-03-21 $17.46 $38.78 $54.10 $67.63 $79.77 $90.64 $101.24
2027-03-28 $16.62 $38.60 $54.22 $67.99 $80.32 $91.35 $102.11
2027-04-04 $15.23 $38.08 $54.04 $68.06 $80.60 $91.80 $102.72
2027-04-11 $13.74 $37.52 $53.83 $68.09 $80.83 $92.19 $103.26
2027-04-18 $12.81 $37.29 $53.87 $68.34 $81.24 $92.74 $103.94
2027-04-25 $10.11 $36.18 $53.19 $67.94 $81.05 $92.72 $104.08
2027-05-02 $6.73 $34.95 $52.42 $67.45 $80.78 $92.62 $104.13
2027-05-09 N/A $32.64 $50.84 $66.30 $79.94 $92.02 $103.74
2027-05-16 N/A $32.39 $50.88 $66.54 $80.34 $92.56 $104.40

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.