iShares Bitcoin Trust price forecast: what the model says

IBIT SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$42.31

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$41.96

Bear 68%

$27.13

Bull 68%

$61.37

68% Range Width

81.6%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $35.10 $37.29 $39.48 $41.81 $44.24 $46.69 $49.33
2026-11-29 $32.20 $35.39 $38.64 $42.19 $45.95 $49.80 $54.05
2026-12-06 $30.24 $34.19 $38.28 $42.82 $47.70 $52.78 $58.46
2026-12-13 $28.03 $32.51 $37.23 $42.54 $48.34 $54.45 $61.35
2026-12-20 $27.34 $32.39 $37.78 $43.91 $50.67 $57.87 $66.08
2026-12-27 $25.93 $31.37 $37.24 $44.01 $51.56 $59.66 $68.97
2027-01-03 $24.56 $30.30 $36.59 $43.92 $52.16 $61.08 $71.43
2027-01-10 $22.58 $28.47 $35.00 $42.69 $51.43 $60.99 $72.15
2027-01-17 $21.07 $27.11 $33.88 $41.94 $51.19 $61.38 $73.36
2027-01-24 $19.86 $26.04 $33.06 $41.49 $51.24 $62.06 $74.88
2027-01-31 $18.79 $25.10 $32.33 $41.11 $51.35 $62.79 $76.41
2027-02-07 $18.33 $24.86 $32.42 $41.67 $52.51 $64.70 $79.29
2027-02-14 $17.26 $23.95 $31.81 $41.52 $53.02 $66.04 $81.75
2027-02-21 $16.60 $23.53 $31.75 $42.03 $54.30 $68.30 $85.27
2027-02-28 $16.07 $23.24 $31.85 $42.71 $55.78 $70.78 $89.07
2027-03-07 $15.12 $22.37 $31.20 $42.45 $56.12 $71.92 $91.31
2027-03-14 $15.02 $22.60 $31.90 $43.83 $58.42 $75.36 $96.24
2027-03-21 $14.34 $22.02 $31.57 $43.94 $59.16 $76.96 $99.01
2027-03-28 $13.61 $21.36 $31.10 $43.84 $59.65 $78.24 $101.39
2027-04-04 $12.43 $20.04 $29.76 $42.62 $58.72 $77.81 $101.71
2027-04-11 $11.53 $19.06 $28.82 $41.87 $58.35 $78.01 $102.77
2027-04-18 $10.80 $18.30 $28.14 $41.42 $58.32 $78.61 $104.30
2027-04-25 $10.15 $17.61 $27.53 $41.04 $58.37 $79.30 $105.92
2027-05-02 $9.89 $17.47 $27.64 $41.59 $59.59 $81.40 $109.25
2027-05-09 $9.26 $16.83 $27.14 $41.44 $60.05 $82.75 $111.89
2027-05-16 $8.89 $16.55 $27.13 $41.96 $61.37 $85.18 $115.88

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.