FIL TWAP Risk Analysis Spot: $0.7778

Methodology: The "Gravity of Time"

This chart compares the price of FIL against its lifetime Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP). The color-coded markers represent historical risk levels based on time-weighted gravity.

How to Read the Data

• Undervalued (Accumulation): When the price is below the TWAP, you are "beating the clock" by entering at a level where the market has historically spent very little time.
• Fair Value (Equilibrium): Near the TWAP, the asset is in its "natural state"—neither over-hyped nor ignored. This is the baseline value created over years of trading.
• Overvalued (Distribution): When the price extends far above the TWAP, it is "borrowing from the future." This dramatically increases the mathematical probability of a mean reversion to the downside.

Dynamic Risk Scaling

Risk levels (1-10) measure the severity of price extension normalized against the maximum historical deviation. Level 10 signals that hype has exponentially outpaced the mathematical time required to support that price.

• ■ Low Risk (1-3): Historic accumulation zones.
• ■ Mid Risk (4-7): Price extending above historical average.
• ■ High Risk (8-10): Historically over-extended vs TWAP.

1-Year VWAP: The Average Price Paid

The pink line is the average price paid per coin over the trailing 365 days: each day's typical price, (high + low + close) / 3, weighted by the coins traded that day. Yahoo reports crypto volume in US dollars, so each day's dollar volume is converted to coins first; weighting by dollars would lean the average toward the most expensive days. The window rolls instead of reaching back to the first trade because exchange-reported volume from 2019 to 2021 was heavily inflated by wash trading, and a lifetime average would stay anchored to that era. Price above the line means the average coin bought over the past year is in profit today; below it, at a loss. The Risk Levels on this chart are still computed from the TWAP alone.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.