Filecoin against its 20-week moving average: risk level

FIL Risk Matrix

$0.7765 | Risk: 0.39

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:55 UTC

📈 FIL Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.4027
Level 0.05 $-0.2504
Level 0.10 $-0.0981
Level 0.15 $0.0542
Level 0.20 $0.2065
Level 0.25 $0.3588
Level 0.30 $0.5111
Level 0.35 $0.6634
Level 0.40 $0.8157
Level 0.45 $0.9680
Level 0.50 $1.1203
Level 0.55 $1.2726
Level 0.60 $1.4249
Level 0.65 $1.5772
Level 0.70 $1.7295
Level 0.75 $1.8818
Level 0.80 $2.0341
Level 0.85 $2.1864
Level 0.90 $2.3387
Level 0.95 $2.4910
Level 1.00 $2.6433

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes FIL's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what FIL's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.