68% Bear Case

$0.07

23-Week Base Target

$0.21

68% Bull Case

$0.55

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.25 0.29 0.34
2026-06-21 0.10 0.14 0.18 0.23 0.29 0.37 0.47
2026-06-28 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.23 0.32 0.43 0.59
2026-07-05 0.07 0.10 0.16 0.23 0.34 0.49 0.70
2026-07-12 0.06 0.09 0.15 0.23 0.35 0.53 0.80
2026-07-19 0.05 0.08 0.14 0.23 0.36 0.57 0.89
2026-07-26 0.04 0.07 0.13 0.22 0.37 0.61 0.99
2026-08-02 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.21 0.38 0.63 1.06
2026-08-09 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.22 0.41 0.70 1.22
2026-08-16 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.22 0.41 0.74 1.31
2026-08-23 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.21 0.41 0.76 1.38
2026-08-30 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.21 0.42 0.79 1.48
2026-09-06 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.21 0.44 0.85 1.63
2026-09-13 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.22 0.47 0.93 1.82
2026-09-20 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.23 0.49 1.00 2.00
2026-09-27 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.23 0.51 1.05 2.14
2026-10-04 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.23 0.52 1.09 2.28
2026-10-11 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.22 0.52 1.13 2.40
2026-10-18 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.22 0.53 1.16 2.53
2026-10-25 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.21 0.52 1.18 2.61
2026-11-01 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.22 0.55 1.28 2.87
2026-11-08 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.22 0.56 1.31 2.99
2026-11-15 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.21 0.55 1.32 3.08