CrowdStrike price forecast: what the model says

CRWD SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$224.09

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$273.18

Bear 68%

$188.86

Bull 68%

$393.59

68% Range Width

74.9%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $187.47 $199.44 $211.61 $224.90 $238.99 $253.50 $269.55
2026-11-29 $172.22 $189.38 $207.37 $227.63 $249.81 $273.34 $300.20
2026-12-06 $161.28 $181.76 $203.75 $229.09 $257.48 $288.30 $324.27
2026-12-13 $154.49 $177.70 $203.09 $232.92 $266.99 $304.67 $349.48
2026-12-20 $149.22 $174.72 $203.10 $236.99 $276.34 $320.58 $374.08
2026-12-27 $142.56 $169.64 $200.22 $237.30 $281.01 $330.88 $392.07
2027-01-03 $137.50 $166.04 $198.74 $238.93 $286.95 $342.48 $411.54
2027-01-10 $132.44 $162.14 $196.60 $239.51 $291.45 $352.25 $428.81
2027-01-17 $128.29 $159.10 $195.28 $240.86 $296.71 $362.85 $447.10
2027-01-24 $124.61 $156.42 $194.21 $242.37 $302.03 $373.47 $465.47
2027-01-31 $121.57 $154.38 $193.79 $244.53 $308.08 $384.97 $485.02
2027-02-07 $117.79 $151.24 $191.84 $244.66 $311.50 $393.17 $500.50
2027-02-14 $114.76 $149.04 $191.09 $246.37 $317.06 $404.32 $520.17
2027-02-21 $112.53 $147.75 $191.41 $249.40 $324.29 $417.67 $542.85
2027-02-28 $109.82 $145.73 $190.69 $251.00 $329.65 $428.65 $562.62
2027-03-07 $108.41 $145.34 $192.00 $255.18 $338.36 $443.99 $588.23
2027-03-14 $107.22 $145.14 $193.53 $259.62 $347.43 $459.91 $614.84
2027-03-21 $104.40 $142.71 $192.01 $259.97 $351.04 $468.71 $632.18
2027-03-28 $102.32 $141.17 $191.61 $261.74 $356.52 $480.01 $652.95
2027-04-04 $99.91 $139.10 $190.43 $262.38 $360.44 $489.24 $671.06
2027-04-11 $97.94 $137.56 $189.90 $263.86 $365.48 $499.98 $691.34
2027-04-18 $96.12 $136.18 $189.52 $265.50 $370.71 $511.04 $712.18
2027-04-25 $94.65 $135.24 $189.69 $267.86 $376.94 $523.50 $735.13
2027-05-02 $92.47 $133.21 $188.31 $268.01 $380.06 $531.72 $752.29
2027-05-09 $90.82 $131.97 $188.08 $269.87 $385.78 $543.85 $775.47
2027-05-16 $89.71 $131.48 $188.86 $273.18 $393.59 $559.01 $803.19

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.