Cognex price forecast: what the model says

CGNX SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$50.73

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$50.10

Bear 68%

$36.24

Bull 68%

$70.57

68% Range Width

68.5%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $42.98 $45.04 $47.11 $49.37 $51.76 $54.20 $56.90
2026-11-29 $39.45 $42.48 $45.63 $49.18 $53.04 $57.14 $61.82
2026-12-06 $37.52 $41.23 $45.21 $49.77 $54.88 $60.44 $66.96
2026-12-13 $35.87 $40.08 $44.67 $50.06 $56.21 $63.05 $71.26
2026-12-20 $34.98 $39.66 $44.85 $51.04 $58.26 $66.43 $76.42
2026-12-27 $33.93 $38.97 $44.63 $51.50 $59.63 $68.99 $80.65
2027-01-03 $32.40 $37.62 $43.57 $50.88 $59.66 $69.93 $82.92
2027-01-10 $30.91 $36.26 $42.41 $50.07 $59.40 $70.45 $84.64
2027-01-17 $30.33 $35.93 $42.45 $50.67 $60.81 $72.99 $88.86
2027-01-24 $30.39 $36.35 $43.39 $52.36 $63.58 $77.24 $95.32
2027-01-31 $28.99 $34.95 $42.05 $51.19 $62.74 $76.97 $96.02
2027-02-07 $28.09 $34.13 $41.40 $50.84 $62.90 $77.92 $98.28
2027-02-14 $26.79 $32.83 $40.15 $49.78 $62.21 $77.88 $99.40
2027-02-21 $25.98 $32.12 $39.64 $49.63 $62.69 $79.37 $102.60
2027-02-28 $25.58 $31.90 $39.72 $50.24 $64.16 $82.17 $107.61
2027-03-07 $25.06 $31.51 $39.58 $50.53 $65.20 $84.41 $111.93
2027-03-14 $24.88 $31.54 $39.97 $51.53 $67.19 $87.98 $118.16
2027-03-21 $24.49 $31.29 $39.96 $51.99 $68.46 $90.58 $123.13
2027-03-28 $23.68 $30.46 $39.18 $51.37 $68.22 $91.09 $125.13
2027-04-04 $22.84 $29.57 $38.28 $50.55 $67.68 $91.15 $126.46
2027-04-11 $22.59 $29.45 $38.41 $51.15 $69.12 $94.01 $131.94
2027-04-18 $22.77 $29.92 $39.33 $52.86 $72.16 $99.22 $141.04
2027-04-25 $21.89 $28.90 $38.21 $51.68 $71.04 $98.42 $141.14
2027-05-02 $21.33 $28.34 $37.69 $51.33 $71.09 $99.30 $143.79
2027-05-09 $20.49 $27.38 $36.64 $50.25 $70.15 $98.83 $144.55
2027-05-16 $19.99 $26.89 $36.24 $50.10 $70.57 $100.40 $148.56

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.