THETA Risk Matrix

$0.2094 | Risk: 0.36

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:55 UTC

📈 THETA Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.0433
Level 0.05 $-0.0079
Level 0.10 $0.0275
Level 0.15 $0.0629
Level 0.20 $0.0983
Level 0.25 $0.1337
Level 0.30 $0.1691
Level 0.35 $0.2045
Level 0.40 $0.2398
Level 0.45 $0.2752
Level 0.50 $0.3106
Level 0.55 $0.3460
Level 0.60 $0.3814
Level 0.65 $0.4168
Level 0.70 $0.4522
Level 0.75 $0.4876
Level 0.80 $0.5230
Level 0.85 $0.5584
Level 0.90 $0.5938
Level 0.95 $0.6292
Level 1.00 $0.6646

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes THETA's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what THETA's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.