68% Bear Case

$0.08

23-Week Base Target

$0.16

68% Bull Case

$0.35

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of THETA prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.21 0.23
2026-06-21 0.09 0.11 0.14 0.17 0.21 0.25 0.31
2026-06-28 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.17 0.23 0.29 0.38
2026-07-05 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.18 0.24 0.32 0.44
2026-07-12 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.17 0.24 0.34 0.49
2026-07-19 0.06 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.25 0.36 0.53
2026-07-26 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.17 0.26 0.38 0.58
2026-08-02 0.05 0.07 0.11 0.17 0.26 0.41 0.64
2026-08-09 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.17 0.27 0.43 0.70
2026-08-16 0.04 0.06 0.10 0.17 0.27 0.44 0.74
2026-08-23 0.04 0.06 0.10 0.16 0.27 0.45 0.77
2026-08-30 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.16 0.27 0.46 0.80
2026-09-06 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.16 0.29 0.50 0.91
2026-09-13 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.17 0.31 0.55 1.02
2026-09-20 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.17 0.32 0.59 1.13
2026-09-27 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.34 0.63 1.23
2026-10-04 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.17 0.34 0.64 1.28
2026-10-11 0.02 0.05 0.09 0.17 0.33 0.65 1.33
2026-10-18 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.17 0.34 0.68 1.41
2026-10-25 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.17 0.35 0.71 1.50
2026-11-01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.17 0.35 0.73 1.59
2026-11-08 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.17 0.35 0.74 1.64
2026-11-15 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.35 0.74 1.68