Bittensor against its 20-week moving average: risk level

TAO22974 Risk Matrix

$222.6400 | Risk: 0.27

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 TAO22974 Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $72.1813
Level 0.05 $99.8184
Level 0.10 $127.4555
Level 0.15 $155.0926
Level 0.20 $182.7296
Level 0.25 $210.3667
Level 0.30 $238.0038
Level 0.35 $265.6409
Level 0.40 $293.2780
Level 0.45 $320.9151
Level 0.50 $348.5522
Level 0.55 $376.1893
Level 0.60 $403.8264
Level 0.65 $431.4635
Level 0.70 $459.1006
Level 0.75 $486.7376
Level 0.80 $514.3747
Level 0.85 $542.0118
Level 0.90 $569.6489
Level 0.95 $597.2860
Level 1.00 $624.9231

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes TAO22974's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what TAO22974's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.