Osmosis against its 20-week moving average: risk level

OSMO Risk Matrix

$0.0351 | Risk: 0.58

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:55 UTC

📈 OSMO Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.0584
Level 0.05 $-0.0503
Level 0.10 $-0.0423
Level 0.15 $-0.0342
Level 0.20 $-0.0262
Level 0.25 $-0.0182
Level 0.30 $-0.0101
Level 0.35 $-0.002106
Level 0.40 $0.005930
Level 0.45 $0.0140
Level 0.50 $0.0220
Level 0.55 $0.0300
Level 0.60 $0.0381
Level 0.65 $0.0461
Level 0.70 $0.0541
Level 0.75 $0.0622
Level 0.80 $0.0702
Level 0.85 $0.0783
Level 0.90 $0.0863
Level 0.95 $0.0943
Level 1.00 $0.1024

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes OSMO's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what OSMO's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.