Optimism against its 20-week moving average: risk level

OP Risk Matrix

$0.1017 | Risk: 0.24

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 OP Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.1340
Level 0.05 $-0.0847
Level 0.10 $-0.0354
Level 0.15 $0.0140
Level 0.20 $0.0633
Level 0.25 $0.1126
Level 0.30 $0.1619
Level 0.35 $0.2112
Level 0.40 $0.2605
Level 0.45 $0.3099
Level 0.50 $0.3592
Level 0.55 $0.4085
Level 0.60 $0.4578
Level 0.65 $0.5071
Level 0.70 $0.5564
Level 0.75 $0.6058
Level 0.80 $0.6551
Level 0.85 $0.7044
Level 0.90 $0.7537
Level 0.95 $0.8030
Level 1.00 $0.8523

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes OP's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what OP's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.