NEAR Risk Matrix

$3.7462 | Risk: 0.73

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:54 UTC

📈 NEAR Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.4048
Level 0.05 $-0.1214
Level 0.10 $0.1620
Level 0.15 $0.4454
Level 0.20 $0.7288
Level 0.25 $1.0123
Level 0.30 $1.2957
Level 0.35 $1.5791
Level 0.40 $1.8625
Level 0.45 $2.1459
Level 0.50 $2.4293
Level 0.55 $2.7127
Level 0.60 $2.9961
Level 0.65 $3.2796
Level 0.70 $3.5630
Level 0.75 $3.8464
Level 0.80 $4.1298
Level 0.85 $4.4132
Level 0.90 $4.6966
Level 0.95 $4.9800
Level 1.00 $5.2635

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes NEAR's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what NEAR's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.