68% Bear Case

$1.03

23-Week Base Target

$2.27

68% Bull Case

$5.64

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of NEAR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 1.56 1.75 1.96 2.21 2.49 2.80 3.18
2026-06-21 1.30 1.56 1.87 2.26 2.76 3.37 4.18
2026-06-28 1.13 1.42 1.80 2.32 3.02 3.95 5.30
2026-07-05 0.99 1.30 1.72 2.33 3.21 4.46 6.41
2026-07-12 0.86 1.18 1.61 2.28 3.28 4.80 7.34
2026-07-19 0.74 1.04 1.47 2.15 3.22 4.92 7.94
2026-07-26 0.67 0.96 1.40 2.11 3.28 5.23 8.89
2026-08-02 0.61 0.90 1.34 2.08 3.35 5.56 9.93
2026-08-09 0.59 0.89 1.36 2.18 3.65 6.34 11.98
2026-08-16 0.56 0.87 1.36 2.26 3.92 7.09 14.17
2026-08-23 0.52 0.82 1.31 2.22 3.97 7.44 15.55
2026-08-30 0.48 0.77 1.25 2.16 3.97 7.68 16.77
2026-09-06 0.46 0.75 1.25 2.23 4.25 8.57 19.79
2026-09-13 0.45 0.74 1.26 2.30 4.53 9.52 23.31
2026-09-20 0.43 0.72 1.26 2.36 4.81 10.53 27.31
2026-09-27 0.41 0.70 1.24 2.38 4.98 11.34 31.01
2026-10-04 0.38 0.66 1.18 2.32 4.99 11.71 33.51
2026-10-11 0.35 0.61 1.10 2.19 4.80 11.53 34.20
2026-10-18 0.32 0.58 1.06 2.15 4.81 11.93 36.97
2026-10-25 0.31 0.55 1.03 2.12 4.85 12.40 40.21
2026-11-01 0.30 0.55 1.05 2.23 5.26 14.03 48.57
2026-11-08 0.30 0.55 1.07 2.30 5.61 15.59 57.47
2026-11-15 0.28 0.53 1.03 2.27 5.64 16.10 62.10