NEAR Protocol against its 20-week moving average: risk level

NEAR Risk Matrix

$3.5901 | Risk: 0.50

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 NEAR Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.2257
Level 0.05 $0.1568
Level 0.10 $0.5393
Level 0.15 $0.9218
Level 0.20 $1.3043
Level 0.25 $1.6868
Level 0.30 $2.0692
Level 0.35 $2.4517
Level 0.40 $2.8342
Level 0.45 $3.2167
Level 0.50 $3.5992
Level 0.55 $3.9817
Level 0.60 $4.3642
Level 0.65 $4.7467
Level 0.70 $5.1291
Level 0.75 $5.5116
Level 0.80 $5.8941
Level 0.85 $6.2766
Level 0.90 $6.6591
Level 0.95 $7.0416
Level 1.00 $7.4241

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes NEAR's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what NEAR's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.