Chainlink against its 20-week moving average: risk level

LINK Risk Matrix

$10.6530 | Risk: 0.36

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:53 UTC

📈 LINK Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $3.6771
Level 0.05 $4.6491
Level 0.10 $5.6211
Level 0.15 $6.5930
Level 0.20 $7.5650
Level 0.25 $8.5369
Level 0.30 $9.5089
Level 0.35 $10.4808
Level 0.40 $11.4528
Level 0.45 $12.4248
Level 0.50 $13.3967
Level 0.55 $14.3687
Level 0.60 $15.3406
Level 0.65 $16.3126
Level 0.70 $17.2846
Level 0.75 $18.2565
Level 0.80 $19.2285
Level 0.85 $20.2004
Level 0.90 $21.1724
Level 0.95 $22.1443
Level 1.00 $23.1163

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes LINK's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what LINK's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.