Ampleforth against its 20-week moving average: risk level

FORTH Risk Matrix

$0.1185 | Risk: 0.48

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:55 UTC

📈 FORTH Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.1397
Level 0.05 $-0.1128
Level 0.10 $-0.0859
Level 0.15 $-0.0590
Level 0.20 $-0.0321
Level 0.25 $-0.005205
Level 0.30 $0.0217
Level 0.35 $0.0486
Level 0.40 $0.0755
Level 0.45 $0.1024
Level 0.50 $0.1293
Level 0.55 $0.1562
Level 0.60 $0.1830
Level 0.65 $0.2099
Level 0.70 $0.2368
Level 0.75 $0.2637
Level 0.80 $0.2906
Level 0.85 $0.3175
Level 0.90 $0.3444
Level 0.95 $0.3713
Level 1.00 $0.3982

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes FORTH's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what FORTH's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.