FIL Risk Matrix

$0.9420 | Risk: 0.44

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:54 UTC

📈 FIL Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.3755
Level 0.05 $-0.2266
Level 0.10 $-0.0778
Level 0.15 $0.0711
Level 0.20 $0.2200
Level 0.25 $0.3689
Level 0.30 $0.5178
Level 0.35 $0.6667
Level 0.40 $0.8156
Level 0.45 $0.9644
Level 0.50 $1.1133
Level 0.55 $1.2622
Level 0.60 $1.4111
Level 0.65 $1.5600
Level 0.70 $1.7089
Level 0.75 $1.8578
Level 0.80 $2.0066
Level 0.85 $2.1555
Level 0.90 $2.3044
Level 0.95 $2.4533
Level 1.00 $2.6022

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes FIL's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what FIL's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.