68% Bear Case

$0.46

23-Week Base Target

$0.67

68% Bull Case

$1.03

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.64 0.69 0.73 0.79 0.84 0.90 0.97
2026-06-21 0.57 0.64 0.71 0.79 0.88 0.98 1.11
2026-06-28 0.54 0.61 0.70 0.80 0.92 1.07 1.25
2026-07-05 0.50 0.58 0.68 0.79 0.94 1.12 1.35
2026-07-12 0.47 0.56 0.67 0.80 0.97 1.18 1.46
2026-07-19 0.44 0.53 0.64 0.78 0.96 1.19 1.52
2026-07-26 0.42 0.51 0.62 0.77 0.96 1.22 1.59
2026-08-02 0.40 0.49 0.60 0.76 0.97 1.25 1.66
2026-08-09 0.38 0.48 0.60 0.76 0.99 1.30 1.76
2026-08-16 0.36 0.46 0.58 0.75 0.99 1.32 1.83
2026-08-23 0.34 0.44 0.56 0.73 0.97 1.31 1.84
2026-08-30 0.33 0.42 0.54 0.72 0.97 1.33 1.90
2026-09-06 0.32 0.41 0.54 0.72 0.99 1.38 2.02
2026-09-13 0.31 0.41 0.53 0.72 1.01 1.43 2.13
2026-09-20 0.31 0.40 0.54 0.74 1.04 1.50 2.29
2026-09-27 0.30 0.39 0.53 0.73 1.05 1.53 2.38
2026-10-04 0.29 0.39 0.52 0.74 1.07 1.59 2.52
2026-10-11 0.28 0.37 0.51 0.72 1.05 1.58 2.54
2026-10-18 0.27 0.36 0.50 0.71 1.05 1.59 2.61
2026-10-25 0.26 0.35 0.49 0.70 1.05 1.61 2.69
2026-11-01 0.25 0.35 0.48 0.70 1.06 1.66 2.81
2026-11-08 0.24 0.34 0.47 0.69 1.06 1.68 2.89
2026-11-15 0.23 0.32 0.46 0.67 1.03 1.64 2.86