Ethereum Classic against its 20-week moving average: risk level

ETC Risk Matrix

$6.9060 | Risk: 0.34

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 ETC Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $0.7586
Level 0.05 $1.6593
Level 0.10 $2.5601
Level 0.15 $3.4608
Level 0.20 $4.3616
Level 0.25 $5.2623
Level 0.30 $6.1631
Level 0.35 $7.0638
Level 0.40 $7.9646
Level 0.45 $8.8653
Level 0.50 $9.7661
Level 0.55 $10.6668
Level 0.60 $11.5676
Level 0.65 $12.4684
Level 0.70 $13.3691
Level 0.75 $14.2699
Level 0.80 $15.1706
Level 0.85 $16.0714
Level 0.90 $16.9721
Level 0.95 $17.8729
Level 1.00 $18.7736

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes ETC's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what ETC's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.