Ethereum Name Service against its 20-week moving average: risk level

ENS Risk Matrix

$4.5150 | Risk: 0.35

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 ENS Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $0.5433
Level 0.05 $1.1134
Level 0.10 $1.6834
Level 0.15 $2.2535
Level 0.20 $2.8235
Level 0.25 $3.3936
Level 0.30 $3.9636
Level 0.35 $4.5337
Level 0.40 $5.1037
Level 0.45 $5.6738
Level 0.50 $6.2438
Level 0.55 $6.8139
Level 0.60 $7.3839
Level 0.65 $7.9540
Level 0.70 $8.5240
Level 0.75 $9.0941
Level 0.80 $9.6641
Level 0.85 $10.2342
Level 0.90 $10.8042
Level 0.95 $11.3743
Level 1.00 $11.9443

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes ENS's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what ENS's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.