EGLD Risk Matrix

$4.1189 | Risk: 0.36

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:54 UTC

📈 EGLD Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-1.5999
Level 0.05 $-0.8047
Level 0.10 $-0.0096
Level 0.15 $0.7856
Level 0.20 $1.5808
Level 0.25 $2.3760
Level 0.30 $3.1711
Level 0.35 $3.9663
Level 0.40 $4.7615
Level 0.45 $5.5566
Level 0.50 $6.3518
Level 0.55 $7.1470
Level 0.60 $7.9422
Level 0.65 $8.7373
Level 0.70 $9.5325
Level 0.75 $10.3277
Level 0.80 $11.1228
Level 0.85 $11.9180
Level 0.90 $12.7132
Level 0.95 $13.5084
Level 1.00 $14.3035

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes EGLD's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what EGLD's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.