68% Bear Case

$1.04

23-Week Base Target

$2.67

68% Bull Case

$6.56

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of EGLD prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 2.04 2.35 2.68 3.08 3.53 4.02 4.61
2026-06-21 1.59 2.02 2.52 3.16 3.96 4.91 6.14
2026-06-28 1.30 1.77 2.37 3.18 4.26 5.63 7.52
2026-07-05 1.08 1.56 2.21 3.14 4.44 6.19 8.70
2026-07-12 0.91 1.38 2.06 3.07 4.55 6.63 9.75
2026-07-19 0.77 1.23 1.92 2.99 4.63 7.01 10.73
2026-07-26 0.67 1.12 1.82 2.95 4.74 7.45 11.83
2026-08-02 0.59 1.03 1.73 2.92 4.86 7.90 12.96
2026-08-09 0.54 0.98 1.71 2.99 5.14 8.60 14.55
2026-08-16 0.49 0.92 1.65 2.97 5.27 9.08 15.80
2026-08-23 0.42 0.82 1.53 2.85 5.21 9.23 16.52
2026-08-30 0.38 0.76 1.46 2.80 5.27 9.59 17.62
2026-09-06 0.35 0.74 1.46 2.88 5.57 10.39 19.57
2026-09-13 0.33 0.72 1.46 2.96 5.88 11.25 21.69
2026-09-20 0.31 0.68 1.43 2.98 6.09 11.91 23.53
2026-09-27 0.28 0.64 1.37 2.95 6.17 12.36 24.98
2026-10-04 0.25 0.59 1.30 2.88 6.18 12.67 26.19
2026-10-11 0.22 0.54 1.24 2.80 6.16 12.93 27.32
2026-10-18 0.20 0.51 1.19 2.76 6.23 13.34 28.78
2026-10-25 0.19 0.48 1.15 2.73 6.30 13.79 30.35
2026-11-01 0.18 0.47 1.15 2.80 6.59 14.68 32.92
2026-11-08 0.16 0.44 1.12 2.78 6.69 15.20 34.73
2026-11-15 0.14 0.40 1.04 2.67 6.56 15.20 35.41