ARB11841 Risk Matrix

$0.2209 | Risk: 0.78

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:54 UTC

📈 ARB11841 Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.0025
Level 0.05 $0.0090
Level 0.10 $0.0205
Level 0.15 $0.0321
Level 0.20 $0.0436
Level 0.25 $0.0552
Level 0.30 $0.0667
Level 0.35 $0.0783
Level 0.40 $0.0898
Level 0.45 $0.1013
Level 0.50 $0.1129
Level 0.55 $0.1244
Level 0.60 $0.1360
Level 0.65 $0.1475
Level 0.70 $0.1591
Level 0.75 $0.1706
Level 0.80 $0.1822
Level 0.85 $0.1937
Level 0.90 $0.2052
Level 0.95 $0.2168
Level 1.00 $0.2283

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes ARB11841's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what ARB11841's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.