Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ARB11841 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.045644 0.057423 0.070404 0.085621 0.102824 0.121529 0.143270
2026-06-21 0.026086 0.041278 0.060332 0.085123 0.115715 0.151489 0.195758
2026-06-28 0.017707 0.034164 0.057065 0.089183 0.131171 0.182514 0.248395
2026-07-05 0.012222 0.028760 0.054117 0.092033 0.143944 0.209616 0.296155
2026-07-12 0.008449 0.024483 0.051517 0.094343 0.155328 0.234657 0.341427
2026-07-19 0.004479 0.017891 0.043736 0.087822 0.153660 0.242118 0.364057
2026-07-26 0.001724 0.011596 0.034541 0.077437 0.145115 0.239350 0.372617
2026-08-02 0.000668 0.008362 0.029831 0.073238 0.144785 0.247157 0.394701
2026-08-09 0.000222 0.006318 0.026826 0.071346 0.147522 0.258997 0.422137
2026-08-16 0.000034 0.004546 0.023685 0.068607 0.148508 0.268105 0.445789
2026-08-23 NaN 0.002581 0.018782 0.061481 0.141608 0.265199 0.452449
2026-08-30 NaN 0.001432 0.015290 0.056364 0.137381 0.265743 0.463569
2026-09-06 NaN 0.001301 0.015820 0.060426 0.149699 0.292223 0.512927
2026-09-13 NaN 0.000860 0.014489 0.060016 0.154140 0.306941 0.546024
2026-09-20 NaN 0.000728 0.014671 0.063258 0.165300 0.332275 0.594814
2026-09-27 NaN 0.000569 0.014493 0.065543 0.174747 0.355093 0.640245
2026-10-04 NaN 0.000424 0.014177 0.067398 0.183426 0.376835 0.684370
2026-10-11 NaN 0.000137 0.011452 0.062170 0.178267 0.376368 0.695788
2026-10-18 NaN 0.000007 0.008128 0.053912 0.166247 0.364135 0.689193
2026-10-25 NaN NaN 0.006608 0.050600 0.163714 0.367126 0.705212
2026-11-01 NaN NaN 0.005712 0.049113 0.164808 0.376092 0.730324
2026-11-08 NaN NaN 0.004754 0.046966 0.164245 0.382142 0.750967
2026-11-15 NaN NaN 0.003229 0.041421 0.155500 0.373693 0.748906