Algorand against its 20-week moving average: risk level

ALGO Risk Matrix

$0.0937 | Risk: 0.37

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 ALGO Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.0123
Level 0.05 $0.001801
Level 0.10 $0.0159
Level 0.15 $0.0301
Level 0.20 $0.0442
Level 0.25 $0.0584
Level 0.30 $0.0725
Level 0.35 $0.0867
Level 0.40 $0.1008
Level 0.45 $0.1150
Level 0.50 $0.1291
Level 0.55 $0.1432
Level 0.60 $0.1574
Level 0.65 $0.1715
Level 0.70 $0.1857
Level 0.75 $0.1998
Level 0.80 $0.2140
Level 0.85 $0.2281
Level 0.90 $0.2422
Level 0.95 $0.2564
Level 1.00 $0.2705

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes ALGO's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what ALGO's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.