AAVE Risk Matrix

$139.6300 | Risk: 0.62

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:54 UTC

📈 AAVE Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $27.6767
Level 0.05 $36.6929
Level 0.10 $45.7091
Level 0.15 $54.7253
Level 0.20 $63.7416
Level 0.25 $72.7578
Level 0.30 $81.7740
Level 0.35 $90.7902
Level 0.40 $99.8064
Level 0.45 $108.8226
Level 0.50 $117.8388
Level 0.55 $126.8550
Level 0.60 $135.8712
Level 0.65 $144.8874
Level 0.70 $153.9037
Level 0.75 $162.9199
Level 0.80 $171.9361
Level 0.85 $180.9523
Level 0.90 $189.9685
Level 0.95 $198.9847
Level 1.00 $208.0009

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes AAVE's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what AAVE's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.