68% Bear Case

$30.05

23-Week Base Target

$57.19

68% Bull Case

$118.48

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of AAVE prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 47.47 52.83 58.65 65.45 73.20 81.79 92.05
2026-06-21 40.02 47.27 55.73 66.37 79.49 95.27 115.83
2026-06-28 34.95 43.02 52.89 65.98 83.07 104.89 135.27
2026-07-05 31.99 40.71 51.81 67.20 88.27 116.60 158.39
2026-07-12 28.74 37.56 49.17 65.83 89.57 122.92 174.57
2026-07-19 26.27 35.15 47.18 64.99 91.30 129.73 192.03
2026-07-26 24.27 33.16 45.51 64.34 93.08 136.63 210.27
2026-08-02 22.90 31.92 44.75 64.86 96.56 146.33 234.12
2026-08-09 21.46 30.44 43.50 64.47 98.49 153.67 254.88
2026-08-16 19.92 28.69 41.69 63.03 98.53 157.83 270.48
2026-08-23 18.39 26.85 39.61 60.94 97.24 159.52 281.68
2026-08-30 17.34 25.67 38.43 60.21 98.16 165.07 300.82
2026-09-06 16.65 25.08 38.27 61.36 102.80 178.51 339.01
2026-09-13 15.94 24.41 37.95 62.23 107.12 192.04 380.25
2026-09-20 15.07 23.41 36.98 61.86 109.09 201.28 413.98
2026-09-27 14.54 22.94 36.87 62.99 113.98 216.98 465.27
2026-10-04 13.66 21.80 35.53 61.72 114.02 222.60 493.90
2026-10-11 12.93 20.89 34.49 60.95 114.94 230.20 528.88
2026-10-18 12.30 20.08 33.60 60.34 116.15 238.56 567.57
2026-10-25 11.87 19.62 33.28 60.83 119.70 252.73 624.89
2026-11-01 11.35 18.96 32.57 60.47 121.36 262.66 672.69
2026-11-08 10.74 18.11 31.43 59.14 120.71 266.94 704.97
2026-11-15 10.10 17.16 30.05 57.19 118.48 267.00 724.58