Block price forecast: what the model says

XYZ SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$88.32

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$96.09

Bear 68%

$58.70

Bull 68%

$426.80

68% Range Width

383.1%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $70.03 $75.30 $81.26 $88.62 $97.67 $108.72 $123.75
2026-11-29 $63.37 $69.85 $77.63 $88.02 $102.15 $121.89 $154.67
2026-12-06 $60.09 $67.54 $76.97 $90.43 $110.64 $143.53 $215.98
2026-12-13 $57.37 $65.45 $76.07 $92.11 $118.41 $168.62 $335.68
2026-12-20 $54.57 $62.87 $74.08 $91.68 $122.59 $190.51 $600.97
2026-12-27 $52.78 $61.42 $73.40 $93.03 $130.30 $229.20 N/A
2027-01-03 $50.95 $59.73 $72.13 $93.12 $135.63 $271.31 N/A
2027-01-10 $48.68 $57.24 $69.43 $90.36 $133.98 $287.14 N/A
2027-01-17 $46.95 $55.40 $67.56 $88.77 $134.58 $317.92 N/A
2027-01-24 $45.63 $54.06 $66.32 $88.15 $137.34 $374.46 N/A
2027-01-31 $44.94 $53.56 $66.34 $89.79 $146.60 $564.71 N/A
2027-02-07 $44.70 $53.71 $67.37 $93.52 $164.03 $3,552.76 N/A
2027-02-14 $43.51 $52.47 $66.22 $93.10 $169.89 N/A N/A
2027-02-21 $42.30 $51.16 $64.86 $92.05 $173.35 N/A N/A
2027-02-28 $41.77 $50.84 $65.12 $94.52 $192.98 N/A N/A
2027-03-07 $41.16 $50.35 $65.05 $96.26 $212.65 N/A N/A
2027-03-14 $40.27 $49.39 $64.07 $95.73 $220.89 N/A N/A
2027-03-21 $39.72 $48.92 $63.92 $97.19 $244.33 N/A N/A
2027-03-28 $39.03 $48.19 $63.27 $97.28 $260.19 N/A N/A
2027-04-04 $37.98 $46.87 $61.46 $94.23 $247.97 N/A N/A
2027-04-11 $37.16 $45.88 $60.21 $92.48 $246.10 N/A N/A
2027-04-18 $36.52 $45.15 $59.39 $91.80 $253.21 N/A N/A
2027-04-25 $36.22 $44.95 $59.53 $93.60 $288.75 N/A N/A
2027-05-02 $36.18 $45.16 $60.45 $97.70 $378.71 N/A N/A
2027-05-09 $35.54 $44.45 $59.67 $97.24 $410.12 N/A N/A
2027-05-16 $34.87 $43.64 $58.70 $96.09 $426.80 N/A N/A

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.