Description

This analysis provides a forecast of W prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.006115 0.006786 0.007515 0.008366 0.009336 0.010412 0.011698
2026-06-21 0.004748 0.005609 0.006617 0.007894 0.009480 0.011404 0.013939
2026-06-28 0.004007 0.004942 0.006097 0.007645 0.009695 0.012354 0.016130
2026-07-05 0.003445 0.004388 0.005601 0.007301 0.009666 0.012904 0.017794
2026-07-12 0.003083 0.004037 0.005306 0.007154 0.009838 0.013697 0.019862
2026-07-19 0.002681 0.003585 0.004819 0.006670 0.009452 0.013610 0.020560
2026-07-26 0.002453 0.003348 0.004602 0.006539 0.009553 0.014236 0.022439
2026-08-02 0.002268 0.003153 0.004422 0.006437 0.009672 0.014888 0.024442
2026-08-09 0.002049 0.002891 0.004121 0.006115 0.009402 0.014863 0.025242
2026-08-16 0.001916 0.002744 0.003979 0.006028 0.009498 0.015455 0.027243
2026-08-23 0.001752 0.002540 0.003732 0.005748 0.009237 0.015385 0.027962
2026-08-30 0.001586 0.002323 0.003451 0.005387 0.008800 0.014948 0.027880
2026-09-06 0.001452 0.002164 0.003281 0.005249 0.008839 0.015574 0.030506
2026-09-13 0.001303 0.001975 0.003053 0.005004 0.008679 0.015857 0.032636
2026-09-20 0.001193 0.001838 0.002897 0.004863 0.008693 0.016488 0.035745
2026-09-27 0.001086 0.001698 0.002720 0.004664 0.008560 0.016786 0.038144
2026-10-04 0.001010 0.001603 0.002613 0.004578 0.008640 0.017556 0.041985
2026-10-11 0.000913 0.001463 0.002413 0.004295 0.008268 0.017236 0.042789
2026-10-18 0.000855 0.001389 0.002325 0.004218 0.008326 0.017934 0.046734
2026-10-25 0.000806 0.001324 0.002249 0.004158 0.008411 0.018714 0.051208
2026-11-01 0.000744 0.001233 0.002117 0.003967 0.008175 0.018639 0.052945
2026-11-08 0.000704 0.001181 0.002054 0.003916 0.008254 0.019407 0.057817
2026-11-15 0.000654 0.001106 0.001941 0.003749 0.008036 0.019329 0.059688