68% Bear Case

$0.00

23-Week Base Target

$0.00

68% Bull Case

$0.01

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
2026-06-21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
2026-06-28 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
2026-07-05 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
2026-07-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
2026-07-19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
2026-07-26 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02
2026-08-02 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02
2026-08-09 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02
2026-08-16 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02
2026-08-23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02
2026-08-30 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02
2026-09-06 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02
2026-09-13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03
2026-09-20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03
2026-09-27 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03
2026-10-04 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03
2026-10-11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03
2026-10-18 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04
2026-10-25 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04
2026-11-01 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04
2026-11-08 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04
2026-11-15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04