Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.003584 0.003987 0.004419 0.004916 0.005474 0.006081 0.006791
2026-06-21 0.002968 0.003538 0.004193 0.005007 0.005992 0.007148 0.008614
2026-06-28 0.002626 0.003281 0.004075 0.005111 0.006434 0.008074 0.010274
2026-07-05 0.002320 0.003010 0.003881 0.005066 0.006645 0.008692 0.011566
2026-07-12 0.002097 0.002811 0.003742 0.005056 0.006875 0.009325 0.012909
2026-07-19 0.001888 0.002604 0.003566 0.004968 0.006974 0.009770 0.014010
2026-07-26 0.001752 0.002479 0.003486 0.004995 0.007224 0.010431 0.015464
2026-08-02 0.001612 0.002336 0.003363 0.004945 0.007347 0.010908 0.016675
2026-08-09 0.001525 0.002260 0.003329 0.005017 0.007653 0.011671 0.018378
2026-08-16 0.001387 0.002097 0.003151 0.004854 0.007578 0.011838 0.019145
2026-08-23 0.001279 0.001971 0.003020 0.004751 0.007585 0.012124 0.020120
2026-08-30 0.001181 0.001851 0.002888 0.004634 0.007555 0.012345 0.020994
2026-09-06 0.001143 0.001827 0.002906 0.004764 0.007947 0.013299 0.023230
2026-09-13 0.001099 0.001789 0.002899 0.004851 0.008273 0.014168 0.025399
2026-09-20 0.001061 0.001758 0.002901 0.004952 0.008628 0.015112 0.027788
2026-09-27 0.001000 0.001683 0.002823 0.004908 0.008721 0.015591 0.029348
2026-10-04 0.000950 0.001624 0.002768 0.004898 0.008874 0.016190 0.031185
2026-10-11 0.000892 0.001546 0.002675 0.004813 0.008877 0.016506 0.032490
2026-10-18 0.000855 0.001506 0.002645 0.004840 0.009092 0.017241 0.034704
2026-10-25 0.000811 0.001446 0.002577 0.004791 0.009157 0.017685 0.036356
2026-11-01 0.000786 0.001423 0.002572 0.004861 0.009460 0.018622 0.039133
2026-11-08 0.000732 0.001341 0.002454 0.004703 0.009294 0.018597 0.039821
2026-11-15 0.000690 0.001278 0.002369 0.004603 0.009238 0.018791 0.041010