68% Bear Case

$3.75

23-Week Base Target

$13.76

68% Bull Case

$39.84

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 7.77 9.50 11.45 13.78 16.51 19.56 23.24
2026-06-21 5.35 7.54 10.29 13.95 18.62 24.33 31.77
2026-06-28 4.06 6.40 9.61 14.21 20.50 28.66 39.88
2026-07-05 3.28 5.70 9.26 14.69 22.53 33.18 48.45
2026-07-12 2.53 4.84 8.48 14.37 23.30 35.97 54.80
2026-07-19 2.05 4.29 8.04 14.43 24.55 39.41 62.21
2026-07-26 1.64 3.75 7.52 14.24 25.34 42.19 68.79
2026-08-02 1.30 3.24 6.93 13.85 25.73 44.35 74.52
2026-08-09 1.11 2.99 6.78 14.16 27.24 48.28 83.11
2026-08-16 0.90 2.66 6.38 13.97 27.89 50.86 89.72
2026-08-23 0.75 2.39 6.08 13.90 28.69 53.71 96.89
2026-08-30 0.58 2.05 5.55 13.32 28.52 54.91 101.43
2026-09-06 0.50 1.91 5.46 13.65 30.12 59.33 111.73
2026-09-13 0.42 1.75 5.30 13.81 31.43 63.37 121.65
2026-09-20 0.35 1.63 5.20 14.07 32.94 67.84 132.54
2026-09-27 0.31 1.55 5.19 14.54 34.92 73.25 145.27
2026-10-04 0.25 1.36 4.86 14.23 35.24 75.65 152.88
2026-10-11 0.20 1.25 4.70 14.29 36.34 79.54 163.29
2026-10-18 0.16 1.11 4.46 14.10 36.90 82.41 171.99
2026-10-25 0.13 0.97 4.15 13.71 36.98 84.37 179.09
2026-11-01 0.11 0.92 4.11 14.02 38.60 89.42 192.10
2026-11-08 0.09 0.82 3.91 13.83 39.10 92.26 201.12
2026-11-15 0.07 0.74 3.75 13.76 39.84 95.61 211.22