Is Toncoin overvalued right now?

📊 Model Methodology: Time Weighted Gravity

This chart maps TON11419's entire historical price action against its lifetime Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP), represented by the solid purple line.

Understanding Gravity Risk

Gravity Risk (0-100) acts as a probabilistic rubber band. It quantifies the mathematical pull of the TWAP baseline. A high Gravity Risk (closer to 100) means the asset has stretched dangerously far from its historical cost basis and is highly susceptible to a sudden, mean-reverting "gravitational pull" downwards. A low risk score indicates the asset has been crushed down to (or below) its historical baseline, representing a statistically safer accumulation zone where the "gravity" has already been neutralized.

The "Gravity of Time"

Most indicators only evaluate short-term momentum. TWAP evaluates the lifetime cost basis of the market:

• Undervalued (Accumulation): When the price is below the TWAP, you are "beating the clock" by acquiring the asset below the historical average value determined by years of trading.
• Fair Value (Equilibrium): Near the TWAP, the asset is in its "natural state"—neither over-hyped nor ignored.
• Overvalued (Distribution): When the price extends far above the TWAP, it is "borrowing from the future," increasing the mathematical probability of a severe mean reversion.

LAST UPDATED: 2026-07-10 13:19 UTC | NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE